The number of youth-those younger than 20-will double by 2050. The age structure of the 10 countries of the Sahel will remain predominately young. These estimates follow the United Nations medium assumption for fertility reduction, yielding values that these countries do not show signs of actually being able to meet. With total fertility rates between 4.1 and 7.6 children per woman on average, the region’s population might increase from almost 135 million today to 330 million by 2050 and close to 670 million in 2100. This growth has occurred because of commendable rapid decreases in infant and child mortality but lagging decreases in fertility. With annual demographic growth rates ranging from 2.5 percent to nearly 4 percent, the population will continue to grow beyond the region’s capacity. Significant population growth appears to be the strongest force driving the region’s potentially turbulent future. 3 Moreover, the World Bank lists half of the nations of the Sahel as fragile states (low-income countries with weak state capacity). 2 The World Bank’s 2015 Doing Business report ranks these nations among the least business-friendly, due in large part to their history of political instability. The region’s GDP per capita in purchasing power parity is relatively low, ranging from approximately US$900 to less than US$3,000 per capita, with the only significant income coming from natural resources like oil and minerals. Source: Carl Haub and Toshiko Kaneda, 2014 World Population Data Sheet(Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2014). Note: Sudan does not include South Sudan. Total Fertility Rate (average number of children per woman) Key Demographic Indicators of the 10 Countries of the Sahel, 2014 Country Only The Gambia has more than 150 people per square kilometer. Landlocked Burkina Faso has a population density of 65 people per square kilometer (see table). Other geographically smaller countries that have access to the sea (such as Senegal) have population densities of 50 people or more per square kilometer. 1 Some of the larger countries that contain extensive expanses of desert (Mali and Niger) have low population densities of fewer than 20 people per square kilometer. These 10 countries span over 7 million square kilometers and have close to 135 million inhabitants. This article focuses on the 10 countries that make up the Sahel region-Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Sudan (see map). Yet, the demographic figures and future population projections only exist at the country level. Since the definition of the Sahel is based on climate, it does not abide by strict international borders. It is a semiarid region with an average rainfall between 12 to 20 inches per year. The Arabic word sahel (“shore”) denotes the transition zone between the Sahara Desert to the north and the savannah plains to the south. The Sahel, in particular, will face the most extreme challenges, compounded by the threat of the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. These projected demographic changes will have tremendous consequences for many issues, from agricultural production to prospects for socioeconomic development, as well as for the political stability of many countries. The population of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 920 million in mid-2014, will more than double in the next 36 years. However, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is still growing rapidly because the region has not yet embarked on its “demographic transition” from high to low birth and death rates. Most regions of the world have experienced gradually declining rates of population growth. May and Jean-Pierre Guengant, “Les défis démographiques des pays sahéliens,” ÉTVDES 4206 (2014): 19-30, which has been used here with kind permission of the French monthly ÉTVDES. (January 2015) This article is a short summary of an essay by John F. Our Commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion.Policy and Advocacy Communications Training.Management of Complex Technical Programs.

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Map of population density of us 2015